With our 11ga heater, going from all cold at 55F to all hot after being underway, we collect just under 2 cups overflow.
I know because I have a plastic container there to capture it. (Although mostly we just turn off the pump and open a hot water valve, which avoids the issue.)
BTW, when the boat was new that valve was leaking directly onto the painted plywood floor in the pump "room". I caught that before any damage was done but asked the dealer about it. Their technician looked and apparently decided to cap it, a bad idea that I discovered later -- when the water heater gasket blew out (not catastrophically, just leaking; but a pain to replace).