Weather Canada Gulf Islands

[Diatom]

Has anyone a recommendation for reliable marine stats/forecasts for Georgia Strait / Gulf Islands?

I'm looking at 3' waves in my protected bay; generated by sustained 40 kmh SE winds. My Netatmo reports winds 15 building to 40 this morning & holding 40 past 2 hours at 4M altitude.

The usual-suspects weather apps report "smooth seas / light winds" and "wind 13 kmh waves 1 ft / 2 sec". Weather Network swears 5 kmh 17 gust.

Surely there's a better way to get a read on the strait without going through Active Pass to gauge it myself?
Likewise the Fraser River entering at Sand Heads - seems to be a surprise every time bearing no relationship to forecasts other than "northwesterly is bad news".

/tmm

 

[scross]

We just crossed from Roche Harbor to Bellingham. Yesterday, the app I use, Windy, was forecasting some pretty strong winds and waves all day today. Fortunately the storm slowed slightly and we had a reasonable return trip - just as the Windy app this morning at 7 AM had projected.
In using Windy over several years, it seems to lean a bit to forecasting worse conditions than actually occur. Actually, I’m ok with that. It updates frequently and covers the entire planet.
As I write this on Sunday at 2:30 PM PDT on 8/15 it says winds off Nanaimo at 10 knots gusting to 18 knots with waves at 2 ft. Marginal conditions at best even for local cruising around Nanaimo in my book. Forecast for Monday is still marginal for crossing the Straight and impossible on Tuesday.
I like the app but your mileage may vary. Just one good tool of several to check on the weather and wave conditions.

 

[Red Raven]

Another vote here for Windy using the ECMWF model. Not perfect, but the best I’ve found. Note that wave forecasts are much more difficult given all the factors. I typically find the waves can be much worse than predicted due to local conditions.

Curt

 

[Diatom]

Thanks RedRaven & SCross.
I use Windy too - intuitive interface and timeline. Still frustrated by inaccuracy on wind and sensitivity on wave height (if "1 ft" means "could be 3 ft" it's not a satisfactory warning for me; wish there were an interrogable buoy or two out in the strait for at least real-time observations. Axys make the things over in Sidney but for some reason they're not widely deployed in Canada.

/tmm

 

[Wee Venture]

I will add a +1 for Windy, and specifically the ECMWF model as Curt suggests. (As I recall, that is not the default model and I think you may need the subscription version to choose that.) I also look at the other models to try to get an idea of worst case scenario. There are a few real time buoy and weather station reports, but they often are not close enough to my route to be especially helpful:
https://weather.gc.ca/marine/weatherCon ... tionID=WWA

John

 

[Diatom]

The EC Georgia Strait buoy is actually perfect for my use: I usually go out Active Pass heading northwest to a waypoint 0.5 nm west of the CA/US border vertex which is just 3 nm off the buoy and pretty much the max wind exposure, then north to Sand Heads. Thanks!

Windy.com - yes using ECMWF model.

/tmm

 

[Gunner065]

My slip is in a club located by the Juan de Fuca Strait (aka Esquimalt BC). As such, we get high winds and swells quite often . I have been using Windy for years, love the graphical representation and the data is by far more accurate than what is provided by Environment Canada Marine Forecast (which tends to be overly cautious in their forecasts).

Two weeks ago, we were heading home from Port browning to Esquimalt, BC. It was a little sporty (20kts from SW, gusting to 25kts, with 3-4 feet swells) from Port Browning to just outside Oak Bay via Haro Strait. Ducked in Royal Victoria Yacht Club for lunch and a break. Then transited SB through Enterprise Channel (should have gone around). The tide was going out and the swells were coming in, 8 feet swells with very short periods. We got air twice (we were doing 8 kts). My wife was driving like a champ (one hand on the throttle the other on the wheel, timing the swells beautifully). Eventually, we made it home in one piece, but shaken and well stirred...

I'd like to say that these boats can take whatever you'll throw at them. I never, ever want to experience this again, but kuddos to Fluid Motion for building quality and strong boats.

Went back to the boat the next day for some TLC and there was no water in the bilge and no damage what so ever, just a lot of salt where salt should not be.

 

[Diatom]

Well as a newbie I'm praying for deliverance when I encounter 3' waves in my C26. If you get thru 8' without a cardiac arrest you either have a bigger boat or bigger ... than this sailor.

/tmm

 

[Hydraulicjump]

You will see from earlier posts that we are Windy advocates. Our experience over the years of crossing Georgia Strait is that Windy—which uses the ECWMF as its default—is vastly superior to the Canadian forecast or the NAM and GFS (US) forecasts. The European model is usually better and other than the NAM has higher resolution. NAM also only goes to about the latitude of Campbell River. And given the complexities of the geography of this part of the world, resolution matters. The coarse resolution models do not see mountains and islands and open water areas the way our little boats do. They just average them to make their calculations easier.

Still, we monitored all of the models today when an actual storm (well, a weak storm) rolled into Vancouver. It was so nice for a Californian to see rain. We stood outside and stared up at it like pluviophiles from a desert planet while very nice Canadians appropriately looked upon us as deranged. But the ECWMF—by far—performed the best in temperatures, precipitation and wind, although it over-estimated wind (again, a resolution problem).

That said, go with the Windy and the ECWMF model. The Canadian model is just too coarse (kind of like, “there will be wind south of Nanaimo today” coarse). But Windy gives you the advantage of easily seeing what actual conditions are from reporting stations—including ships—all over the place. That gives you a measure of how the model is handling the current weather systems and will inform your decisions.

And because it costs money to keep Windy going, I encourage you to subscribe to it. I have no financial interest in Windy, but my boat sure does.

From Vancouver’s gorgeous waterfront,

Jeff

 

[SJI Sailor]

I will put in a plug for the HRRR (high resolution rapid refresh) model, which is recommended in seminars by Jeff Renner (well known Seattle area meteorologist, author, pilot, and boater). IIUC it is regarded as the typically most accurate and highest resolution, with hourly updates, and is used by many meteorologists. There is also a wind-only HRRR model updated every 15 minutes. (https://research.noaa.gov/article/A...resume-of-High-Resolution-Rapid-Refresh-Model)

OTOH the HRRR is only available 18 hours in advance (there is a less accurate 48 hour version) and it is not in most general apps like Windy. To look at it, I use a grib viewer app (LuckGrib) although that takes some investment to learn how to use, compared to simpler apps. Grib viewers are more often used offshore but I like the availability they give of specialized models from different sources and the control options for visualization (colors, streamlines, etc). The expensive PredictWind has HRRR too.

Besides HRRR — same day only — I typically also check the NDFD (has wave height estimates), NBM, and the “compare forecasts” option for the models in Windy. Also the NOAA latest marine forecast … and if I am really interested, the NOAA marine forecast discussion. That is weather geeky, I know!

 

[Hydraulicjump]

All great advice. And for those who really want to geek out on all of this and so much more (like watching Hurricane IDA develop as it moves from Cuba to Louisiana), try Tropicaltidbits.com. More there than most geeks can absorb.

Jeff